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Population of Palestine - 1946
According to the Anglo-American
Commission Survey
March 22, 1949

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  Introduction

The population and demographics of the Palestine mandate and of Ottoman Palestine has been a subject of considerable controversy. Ottoman census figures were not reliable (see Population of Ottoman and Mandate Palestine. The British carried out only two censuses - in 1922 and 1931. Even in these supposedly accurate counts, the nomadic Bedouin population of the Negev could only be be estimated and was variously considered to be about 100,000 or 50,000. In the years after 1931, the only available population figures were those given in the British mandate blue books (vilstat) statistics, which were compiled from reports of births and deaths by town and village and district, and immigration and emigration statistics. These were inaccurate for various reasons: A large number of Jewish illegal immigrants were not counted. A large number of Arab workers brought "temporarily" to Haifa port were probably not counted. There was apparently considerable illegal immigration of Arabs via Sinai and Jordan as well. If a man took a wife from outside Palestine, this would not be registered necessarily, since the records depended primarily on birth records and immigration was often "informal." The Bluebook figures were apparently last compiled in 1945 and reflect figures from 1944 or 1945. The Report of the Anglo American Committee of Inquiry used those figures and others to estimate the population of Palestine at the end of 1946, by projecting birth rates apparently. Between 1946 and the announcement of partition in November 1947, there was significant emigration of Arabs from Palestine.

The demographics and population figures are used for political purposes, to back various claims about the percentage of the Jewish population in Palestine, the number of Arab refugees and the rights and claims of the respective sides. In general such claims are suspect and their validity would depend on one's point of view in the best circumstances, even if the numbers were correct. The British Mandate was granted in order to create a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine (see The British Mandate for Palestine. Arab pressure forced the British authorities to issue The British White Paper of 1939, limiting Jewish immigration and land purchases. This violated the terms of the mandate. From the Zionist point of view, the demography of Palestine reflected  the injustice done by the White Paper of 1939 and was irrelevant to deciding the rights of the respective populations, especially as the White Paper restrictions had resulted in the deaths of large numbers of Jews who could not escape Europe and were murdered in the Holocaust. The Grand Mufti, Hajj Amin El Husseini, who was a Nazi collaborator, did his best to ensure that the Germans would not allow Jews to emigrate to Palestine even when the British were willing to permit it.

The Arabs of Palestine, for their part would argue that the British Mandate itself was unjust. That may be so, but it is doubtful at best, if, having done their best to stop Jewish immigration and land purchases over a long period preceding the mandate, as well as during the mandate, they can then legitimately claim that the Jews had no right to a state because they were not a majority and didn't own much of the land.

The figure of 608,000 given for Jewish population of Palestine apparently includes illegal immigrants that were declared to the Anglo-American commission by the Jewish Agency. It is a large increase over the reported Jewish population of the British records.

It is not clear from the footnotes below who produced the revised population estimates and when they were produced. The Anglo-American survey gave lower values that were from 1944 in a different volume. One might think we could get an idea of the basis of the estimate for Arab population by comparing the projected figures given here, with the ones summarized given in the Anglo American Survey as the 1945 Vilstat figures. 

Non Jewish population of Palestine

Comparison of 1945 population figures and 1946 projections

District

April 1945

VilStat

December 1946

Projection

% increase
Acre 65,380 70,570 7.94
Safed 46,920 49,800 6.14
Tiberias 26,100 27,830 6.63
Beisan 16,590 17,360 4.64
Nazareth  38,500 41,930 8.91
Haifa 120,120 134,430 11.91
Jaffa  109,700 114,130 4.04
Ramla  82,220 102,440 24.59
Beersheba 53,340 6,500 -87.81
Total: 558,870 564,990 1.10

 

From the above it is evident that we can draw no conclusions by comparing the estimates with the Vilstat figures of April 1945 on which they were were supposedly based. Overall, there was an increase of about 1.1% in these districts. Since this is less than the population increase that should have occurred in this period, we could assume that the Anglo-American survey had found errors in the vilstat statistics and corrected them.

The figures given for non-Jewish population total 1,237,330 persons at the end of 1946. If we add 3% for natural increase, a very high estimate, we would arrive at 1,274,450 persons at the beginning of 1948. However, if we add the elusive 50,000 Bedouin of the Negev, who do not appear in the 1946 figures, and apparently did not exist or could not be counted, the numbers would be larger. Even counting this nomadic population, some of which lived in Syria and Transjordan part of the year, there doesn't appear to be any justification for the figure of "1,358,000 Palestinian Arab citizens of Palestine" given by McCarthy.

Ami Isseroff


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Source: http://domino.un.org/unispal.nsf/eed216406b50bf6485256ce10072f637/be931279021bcfb4852563d20078d30b!OpenDocument


U N I T E D N A T I O N S

 
Distr.


A/AC.25/W/4
22 March 1949

 
   
UNITED NATIONS CONCILIATION COMMISSION FOR PALESTINE
 

 
W/4
22 March 1949
 
SETTLED POPULATION OF PALESTINE
BY TOWN AND SUB-DISTRICT,
ESTIMATED AS AT 31ST DECEMBER, 1946.

(Reproduced from the Supplement to the Survey of Palestine, June 1947)

 

 
Locality
Total (a)
Moslems
Jews (a)
Christian
Others
Total
Urban
Rural
1,845,560
894,570
950,990
1,076,780
328,810
747,970
608,230
447,840
160,390
145,060
115,980
29,080
15,490
1,940
13,550
Safad Sub-district 56,970 47,310 7,170 1,630 860
Safad
Villages
12,610
44,360
9,780
37,530
2,400
4,770
430
1,200
-
860
Acre Sub-district 73,600 51,130 3,030 11,800 7,640
Acre
Villages
13,560
60,040
10,930
40,200
50
2,980
2,490
9,310
90
7,550
Tiberias Sub-district 41,470 23,940 13,640 2,470 1,420
Tiberias
Villages
11,810
29,660
4,990
18,950
6,030
7,610
780
1,690
10
1,410
Beisan Sub-district 24,950 16,660 7,590 680 20
Beisan
Villages
5,540
19,410
5,080
11,580
-
7,590
440
240
20
-
Nazareth Sub-district 49,910 30,160 7,980 11,770 -
Nazareth
Afula
Villages
15,540
2,470
31,900
6,290
10
23,860
-
2,460
5,520
9,250
-
2,520
-
-
-
Haifa District
Haifa Sub-district 253,450 95,970 119,020 33,710 4,760
Haifa
Hadera
Shafa 'Amr
Villages
145,430
7,590
3,740
96,690
41,000
-
1,380
53,590
74,230
7,570
10
37,210
29,910
20
1,590
2,190
290
-
760
3,700
Samaria District
Jenin Sub-district 61,210 60,000 - 1,210 -
Jenin
Villages
4,310
56,900
4,150
55,850
-
-
160
1,050
-
-
Nablus Sub-district(b) 94,600 92,810 - 1,560 230
Nablus
Villages (b)
24,660
69,940
23,740
69,070
-
-
690
870
230
-
Tulkarm Sub- district(b) 93,220 76,640 16,180 380 20
Tulkarm
Natanya
Villages (b)
8,860
5,290
79,070
8,560
-
68,080
-
5,290
10,890
280
-
100
20
-
-
Jerusalem District
Ramallah Sub-district 48,930 40,520 - 8,410 -
Ramallah
Villages
5,180
43,750
660
39,860
-
-
4,520
3,890
-
-
Jerusalem Sub-district 253,270 104,460 102,520 46,130 160
Jerusalem
Bethlehem
Beit Jala
Villages
164,440
9,140
3,740
75,950
33,680
2,630
200
67,950
99,320
-
-
3,200
31,330
6,490
3,540
4,770
110
20
-
30
Hebron Sub-district 93,120 92,640 300 170 10
Hebron
Villages
26,390
66,730
26,220
66,420
-
300
160
10
10
-
Lydda District
Jaffa Sub-district 409,290 95,980 295,160 17,790 360
Jaffa
Tel Aviv
Petah Tiqva
Villages
101,580
183,200
18,160
106,350
53,930
130
140
41,780
30,820
182,510
18,010
63,820
16,800
230
10
750
30
330
-
-
Ramle Sub-district 134,030 96,590 31,590 5,840 10
Ramle
Lydda
Rehovot
Rishon le Zion
Villages
16,380
18,250
10,350
8,790
80,260
12,910
16,250
-
-
67,430
-
20
10,330
8,790
12,450
3,470
1,970
20
-
380
-
10
-
-
-
Gaza District
Gaza Sub-district 150,540 145,700 3,540 1,300 -
Gaza
Majdal
Khan Yunis
Villages
37,820
10,900
12,350
89,470
36,760
10,810
12,310
85,820
-
-
-
3,540
1,060
90
40
110
-
-
-
-
Beersheba Sub-district 7,000 6,270 510 210 10
Beersheba
Villages
6,490
510
6,270
-
-
510
210
-
10
-

_____________________________________________
(a) Revised de facto estimate.
(b) Revised figures, according to sub-district boundaries 1946.

 
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