Ami Isseroff, June 5, 2002
Everyone concerned with the Israel-Palestine conflict wants reform of the Palestine National Authority (PNA), from the Israelis to the Palestinians to the Arab countries, the EU and the US. However, reform is probably doomed to failure. Reform could not possibly fulfill all of the conflicting and sometimes self-contradictory expectations of the different parties, as Gershon Baskin, Israeli Co- Director of IPCRI,
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information, pointed out in a recent article.True reform would require a radical reorganization of the Palestinian polity, and perhaps of Palestinian society, which are not contemplated. Zeev Schiff, writing in Haaretz (June 5, 2002) pointed out the obvious, Israelis expect that reform and democracy will stop the violence, Palestinians do not. A thoroughgoing democratic reform would only be possible under relatively normal conditions. With all records of every Palestinian organization wrecked by the IDF, continuing closure and continuing IDF incursions in the West Bank, it is not possible to provide the minimal conditions for normal life and debate. Not surprisingly, the first signs of reform indicate that the changes will make things worse, or produce no change at all.
The Palestinians want reform, in the sense that they want a democratic government that will provide for its people instead of wasting money on Mercedes and villas for PLO fat-cats, will be representative of its people, and will defend them against the Israelis. The Arab governments also want reform. Can it be imagined that the monarchies and Mukhabarat (secret police) states want a democratic Palestine that will be an inspiration to democracy in the Arab world? Or is it more likely that they want a regime that will control radical Islamist elements as well as suppressing true voices for democracy?
Sharon expects that reform will produce a PNA that is compliant with Israeli wishes, and will sign over half of the occupied territories of Palestine to permanent or semi-permanent Israeli rule and colonization with settlements. Sharon and the Israeli right insist that removal of Yasser Arafat as leader will magically produce monumental changes in Palestinian society. The Americans believe, or want to believe, that the Palestinian violence was not produced by the PLO/PNA, and that Yasser Arafat would control it if only he could. Therefore, they want unification of the security forces, to suppress the violence. However, if the security forces and the government serve the people, and the people want "resistance to occupation," then the result of a more efficient security force would of course, be more efficient violence.
The building blocks of Palestinian political life are the different resistance organizations. In polls, voters can choose between Fatah candidates and Fida candidates and Hamas candidates and so on. These groups are the substitute for political parties, but they are not the same as political parties that might be found in a democracy.
The Palestinian polity is made up of about a dozen different groups: Fatah, Fatah Revolutionary Council, Fatah Uprising, PFLP, PFLP-GC, DFLP, Fida, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, PPP and others. Some of these are genuine Palestinian groups, a few are the tools of Arab countries such as Syria. Some are represented in Palestine, others exist only in Lebanese refugee camps. Most of them began their organization life as armed guerilla groups with the goal of "liberating" Palestine. They developed an ideology and political program for Palestinian society as an afterthought, or based upon their religious or Marxist orientation. This is opposite development from the one that engenders democratic governments. The Continental Army grew out of the Continental Congress in the USA. In the pre-Israel Jewish community, the Jewish Agency spawned the Hagana and the Palmach, not the other way round. The Khmer Rouge government in Cambodia is an example of what happens when an armed gang or a group representing one ideology spawns a political movement.
Of the leading Palestinian groups, none developed out of an attempt to represent the different groups and domestic interests in Palestinian society, none of them developed with a political program independent of the idea of destroying Israel. The PLO is supposed to represent the Palestinians, but it is a council of armed groups, not a parliament of political parties.
None of these groups has extensive experience in orderly administration. The leaders of these groups were used to living in hotels in Beirut or Tunis on subsidies from gulf states and other donors, and disposing of funds as they see fit. They carried over their way of life to Palestinian self-rule. Not surprisingly, corruption and cronyism are rife. These groups, with the near-unanimous support of the Palestinian people, control Palestinian political life, the PNA and the reform process. True democracy would undermine the rule of the guerilla chiefs. Transparency of economic transactions, demanded by the EU and Palestinians, would end the lifestyle of these leaders. As long as they and the organizations they represent exist, there will be no such reforms.
The rule of Yasser Arafat is based on the Islamic model of democracy by consensus, seeking to prevent a bloody civil war such as the one that occurred during the "Arab Revolt of 1936-1939, in which the Husseini family and their partisans massacred members of moderate Palestinian clans.
Consensus rule has prevented open war between the entire alphabet soup of different guerilla groups. Consensus is the glue that keeps the PNA from flying apart into chaos, but it is also the sludge that prevents any positive change. In consensus rule, only the "safest" common denominator goals can be an accepted part of the program. Concessions from Israel will always be accepted easily, while any concessions to be made by Palestinians cannot be part of the consensus and are therefore not easily forthcoming.
For Ariel Sharon, reforming the PNA means replacing Yasser Arafat.
He told U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns:
"With Arafat, there won't be any reforms and even if there are, they won't be trustworthy and we won't be able to accept them. It will be a waste of time.... With Arafat in power, the terror will continue. We will not view Arafat as a partner and we will not be able to take risks as long as he is there. He must be cut off from the governmental institutions, and the Arafatism that he is continuing to lead must be stopped."
Is it possible that Ariel Sharon does not understand? "Arafatism" is the moderate version of the consensus of Palestinian society, Arafat himself is the symbol of Palestine. Replacing Arafat without changing the structure of the political system can do nothing positive except possibly create greater extremism and greater anarchy. Without Arafat or an Arafat clone, the different groups that are the real basis of power in Palestinian society, would have no reason to follow the PLO or the PNA. There would be nobody to sign an agreement, and nobody to enforce it. It is the groups that have to be eliminated, and not the leader.
The process of reform has already started. The long delayed and much hailed signing of the Basic Law may be an empty victory. The law states in Article 4 that Islam is the official religion of Palestine, and that the principles of Islamic Sha'aria (religious law) will be the basis of legislation. Article 92 states that religious laws shall govern personal and family regulations, such as marriage and divorce. The place of women in Palestinian society will therefore be according to the Qur'an it seems. The Basic Law supposedly guarantees freedom of religion, speech, assembly and other civil rights. But the guarantee is subject to constraints. For example, Article 18 states: "Freedom of belief and worship and exercise of religious functions are guaranteed, subject to non-violation of public order or morality." Morality is of course determined by the official religion, which is Islam.
The reforms to be announced shortly will leave Arafat in charge of the security forces. A basic premise of democratic government, civilian administration of the armed forces, is violated, because Yasser Arafat, who has referred to himself as "General Arafat," is the personification of the Palestinian army. The armed groups will continue to control the civil administration, and not the other way 'round.
The elections, if they are ever held, will not change much in the best case. Arafat's reelection is guaranteed. As in the previous elections, only one relatively unknown person is apparently going to run against him, a man who is associated with the Hamas extremists. No group that would run in the elections has a detailed domestic program to rebuild Palestine and create a livable habitat for three million people, or a foreign policy that might achieve peace. No group paralleling the Israeli peace movement exists as an organized force in Palestinian political life. There is nobody to say "the policy of insanity is mistaken."
The reforms cannot be better than the reality that creates them. The government cannot be better than the polity that composes it. No government can fulfill the conflicting goals of the advocates of reform. The Israelis want a bribable government that will enforce what the Palestinian people do not want, and they want this to be called "democracy." The Palestinians insist on a government based on the current political organizations and goals, with Arafat as the head, an Islamic government that is also democratic, a government that pursues "peace" and at the same time continues the "resistance" and pursues "Palestinian Rights" including Right of Return, and the goals of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad - destruction of Israel. They want that government to avoid civil war at all costs and to govern by consensus. In short, what they want is impossible. When the "reform process" is done, and the "reforms" are in place, it will be evident to everyone that nothing was accomplished, and that salvation is not at hand through the reform gimmick.
Ami Isseroff
Rehovot, Israel
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